Main Takeaways:-
- The economy contracted in early 2025, although hiring remained strong, mainly due to a sudden increase in imports caused by tariffs.
- Business and consumer trust have dropped significantly due to growing instability and inflation concerns.
- Financial markets are doing poorly because trade issues and uncertain policies are upsetting investors and business leaders.
President Donald Trump said that his second White House term is having a strong start in the U.S. past. New economic numbers reveal a contrasting picture.
The economy got smaller from January to March, the first time in three years. Experts say it’s because many goods were brought in early to avoid new tariffs. Still, companies are hiring, and prices are not rising as fast as they did last year.
Reports of household trust, business investment strategies and assumptions for sales, employment and economic expansion have slowed dramatically. Experts said that the tariff fight is the main reason the president announced tariffs against trading partners around the world.
Trump’s Tariff Plan Targets Trade Deficit
In the whole campaign and his beginning term, Trump committed to using import taxes to stop trade gaps, increase government income, and bring factory jobs relocated to the United States. The tariffs introduced since early April are the highest barriers to foreign goods in over a century, even though the government temporarily stopped some of the taxes announced on April 2.
These changes, along with warnings of more taxes in the future, have made businesses both in the U.S. and other countries unsure about rules that could change at any time. Bloomberg Economics’ measure of global trade uncertainty is now much higher than it was during the first round of trade conflicts.
Trump frequently points to the trade deficit, which has built up over 50 years, as evidence that the U.S. is being “cheated.” However, the first result of the new tariffs was a huge increase in imports. Companies rushed to bring in goods before prices went up, causing the trade gap to reach a record high in early 2025. This surge in imports was so big that it negatively impacted the GDP and led to a decline in the economy during the first quarter.
Job Growth Remains Steady in Q1 2025
Job growth continued in the beginning months of the year. Employers added 456,000 jobs between January and March, beating predictions, and the unemployment rate went up a little. “GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING,” Trump posted on social media on April 4, the day the March report came out.
However, future predictions do not match the previous data. Most private-sector experts believe that higher import taxes will raise costs for both foreign and domestic products, leading to faster inflation. Surveys show that consumers agree, with expectations for price increases over the next year and five years rising significantly.
Retailers observed a spike in expenses at the end of last year and into the winter as shoppers snatched up cars, computers and other high-priced items before tariffs increased listed prices. At present, with households preparing for sharper prices and weaker growth, various measures of consumer confidence have dropped to levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic downturn.
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