- BTC Q1 close below $90k because whales play open shorts.
- After 2018, Ethereum recorded its worst Q1, with a 38% drop.
- Before Trump’s tariff explanation on April 2nd, the analysts didn’t expect any rally.
The first quarter of 2025 is finished in the red by Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, with the market expectations weakened by macro unpredictability and visible whale resistance close to the key price levels.
Pav Hundal, the analyst of Swiftx lead, had noted that a “vertical swing up” before the quarter’s end on March 31st was doubtful. As expected, there was no unexpected boost, without even a spark.
Pav Hundla also mentioned that until mid-April, the crypto market would continue “flying a little blind”, while the other details are expected in U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
At the press time, “Ethereum”, which traded at $1,852.25, has dropped 37.98% in Q1, 2025, according to the data of the report. It marks the worst Q1 since 2018, when ETH dropped 46.61%.
Meanwhile, over the quarter, Bitcoin dropped 6.49%, its weakest Q1 since the 10.83% fall in 2020.
Whales Short Bitcoin at $88K as Resistance Grows
Alphractal, the analytics platform, noted that whales have been shorting Bitcoin around $88,000. At the time of writing Bitcoin was trading at $83,129.15, up 0.13%. The “sharp reversal” was noted by the firm in its whale position Sentiment metric, declining large $1 million+ trades on multiple exchanges. It warned that the behaviour typically precedes a price drop.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson stated in a recent X post that:
“Whales have closed their long positions”.
The 8 out of 10 on-chain metrics currently flashing bearish are highlighted by CryptoQuant and support this view. BTC needs to be above $90,000 to maintain the growth surge.
Struggling with that, the $84,000 to $85,000 zone is constantly a key cost-basis liquidity area. According to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, dropping below this range could cause immediate selling.
ETH/BTC Ratio Hits 2020 Levels as Ether Lags
According to Tradingview data, the ETH/BTC ratio dropped to 0.022, its lowest since May 2020. Ether is showing a weakening relative strength against Bitcoin, although ETH historically surpassed BTC in the first quarter.
After Trump’s November 2024 election win faded by early February, the market confidence that followed Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 and the new tariffs and interest rate worries raised sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index revealed concern at 24 on April 1st.
Analysts Split on April and Q2 Outlook
Swiftx’s Hundal hopes for clarification to emerge only by mid-April. Before, the markets reacted carefully to mixed macroeconomic data. Despite the short-term weakness, few continuously project new highs later in 2025.
In the next nine months, Bitcoin has a 75% chance of reaching new all-time highs, said Timothy Peterson, an economist at Cane Island. He also said that there is a 50% chance BTC gains 50 %+ in the short term.
Accumulation Continues Despite Bearish Signs
According to sentiment, wallet holdings of 100 to 10,000 BTC have restarted collection since Bitcoin’s local bottom. In the previous 24 hours, the block data showed that the $220 million in BTC net outflows from exchanges rose to $424 million from March 18–24.
On X, a crypto analyst named Ali, with over 800,000 followers, noted that miners have not mentioned the signs of selling during the pullback, advising fundamental trust.
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